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Is Anyone Longing for Some Winter Weather?

Do you like winter weather or are you a warm weather person?

We kicked off meteorological winter on December 1st and in my child like brain, it's time to see some snow! I suppose if I lived up north it might get old, but I don't, I love to see falling snow. Some of my best childhood memories involve playing in the snow. We use to block off a road (much to the chagrin of the mailman) with a big snow wall and use it as our sled course. We'd be out for hours and hours, never getting cold and not wanting to stop even if we did. My beagle would be totally covered in snow balls and ice and even he would keep going despite the extra 10 pounds of weight attached to his body. 

So yes... I guess I live in the wrong place. I'd be better off in the mountains of NC/TN I suppose, or at least someplace that is more conducive to snowfall. But since that isn't happening anytime soon, I'll have to live my winter life through those that do have snow.

All of this kind of leads to my reason for writing this blog post. No, it's going going to snow any time soon here but there are some changes that appear to be coming that may bring enough cold air to at least place us in a position for the possibility of winter precipitation. 

My buddy Robert Gamble at WXSouth.com has this to say about the upcoming pattern change:

"The GFS model brings the westerlies south around week 2 in December but it goes more into a more hardcore Winter mode with strong blocking in the northern Latitudes and strong ridging where there is currently the Alaskan Vortex, beginning in as little as a week.  I think this is overdoing things, as far as super strong PNA ridging out west, especially later on, but if it’s right, then Winter will come ushering in quickly just past 10 days for a big chunk of the country.  One other thing that could happen as far as the Southeast is concerned, some members of GFS (many in fact) have a Southeast ridge and strong positive tilt trough, which basically is just southwest flow aloft over the Southeast and a strong baroclinic boundary.  This would be great news to deliver rain fall, but would keep the coldest air away from the Southeast for a while.  But at the same time, extrapolating from GFS still leads me to believe that things at the top of the continent will cause a collapse, in tandem with negative NAO, so we won’t escape a cold pattern much longer, even if it’s delayed thanks to a positive tilt trough.  It’s going to be  a headache forecasting things beyond 7 days until we actually get into the new pattern".

Right now, the GFS is showing some serious rainfall over the southeast in two weeks, and even though 4-5" might be overdone, it also may be correct. Needless to say, changes are in the works for our weather as we approach the Winter Solstice, which this year occurs on Friday, December 21st at 6:12 am. 

And if you're wondering where the cold air is, here are a few temps from yesterday morning from Alaska:

Chicken Co-op: -52F
Tok CWOP: -50F
Dawson, YT: -46F
Eagle Co-op: -44F
Northway: -42F 
Coal Creek RAWS: -42F 

The low of -30F through 9am at the Fairbanks Airport is the lowest of the season thus far. Again, I have a page with about 8 different weather stations from Canada and Alaska. 7 of these stations also have a webcam, so you can virtually travel to some of the coldest places in the northern hemisphere from the warm comfort of your living room. And while you're traveling to these remote places, please visit the Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire. It's actually a pretty balmy 27ºF right now, but in a few days it will all change. I've added images from 4 of their webcams so you can see what it's like (although the snow and clouds make it difficult to see much of anything right now).

Please remember, whenever you need weather information, please visit us at the new and improved DaculaWeather.com. You can also get the latest weather information by following us on Twitter and Facebook 
DaculaWeather.com... Your Window to the Weather

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

North Georgia Weather December 11, 2012 at 10:50 PM
From another discussion: "12z GFS continues to pound the idea of pattern change, and kicking it off with a potential winter storm for the SE/Mid Atlantic region. This previous wave then falls back into this storm and forms a full-fledged 50/50 low. Meanwhile in the pacific, as hinted at on last night's 0z run, a UL drops well south and cuts off from the main flow looking beyond D+10, firing up the STJ (recent tanking of the SOI portends to this idea). This effectively destroys the persistent +EPO/-PNA setup we've been dealing with the past few weeks. If this comes to pass, expect a more persistent cold pattern with arctic fronts finally making their way down to our neck of the woods. In addition, the active STJ will increase our threats for winter weather. The first threat we've been seeing with the "kick-off" system a week from now is coming in before any real cold is established so it's going to be a borderline event that's going to hinge on dynamic effects, if it even comes to pass at all. After this storm, cold air should arrive in more abundance, along with a more stormier pattern as the Pacific may finally be on our side."
Kristi Reed December 11, 2012 at 11:47 PM
Are you hinting at something? Not the s-word I hope!
North Georgia Weather December 12, 2012 at 09:36 PM
SAFE TO SAY THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED WITH LAST 3 OR 4 RUNS OF GFS. SFC AND UPPER LOW STILL PROGGED TO GO NORTH OF CWA. ECMWF DOES HAVE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND UPPER LOW COULD CLOSE OFF BEFORE REACHING GA IN 12Z RUN. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS. INITIAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK SHOULD KEEP ANY COLD AIR MASS AT SFC WELL TO THE NORTH OF THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. STAY TUNED.
North Georgia Weather December 12, 2012 at 09:39 PM
We may have a severe weather threat sometime around Monday. Both models are showing anywhere from 1-5" of rainfall between Sunday and Tuesday. We're entering a very active period where we will get many shots of precipitation and cold air. I'm also seeing a very interesting situation that may occur right around Christmas. More to come!
North Georgia Weather December 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM
The NAO block on the 0Z GFS is further west/stronger, and, therefore, is causing a good bit colder air to come into the MW/NE early in the 6-10 day range. This the coldest GFS run for this period in those areas in at least five runs. It now appears that our first brush with winter precipitation will be right around Christmas. More details to come in a separate blog post.

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